Complete standalone final deliverable and unaligned Q2 results

final/experiments/q2/unaligned_deep_two_b128/aurc_mae_by_mode_seed.csv

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final/experiments/q2/unaligned_deep_two_b128/aurc_mae_paired_bootstrap.csv

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final/experiments/q2/unaligned_deep_two_b128/controlled_metrics_by_scenario.csv

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final/experiments/q2/unaligned_deep_two_b128/hypothesis.md

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+# R03: 按 math/Q2 V2 口径重训两种保留模型
+
+## 假设
+
+在保持 EarlyConcat + BiGRU 与 MoFE-7 + MLP Router 结构及共同监督目标不变的情况下，使用数学方案中的官方划分、连续块缺失训练和 42 个固定验证情景，可以公平比较两种模型的干净测试表现与缺失鲁棒性。
+
+## 唯一实验改动
+
+相对现有检查点，本轮重新训练时将缺失训练改为 0/10/30/50/70% 与 single/sync/partial/async，每个被选模态至少保留 20% 观测；训练和批次顺序在两个模型间配对。数学方案中的 C5 概率损失不适用于现有确定性分类/回归头，因此保留项目既有的 CE + 0.5 SmoothL1 联合目标。
+
+## 数据使用
+
+标准化器只在官方训练集观测行上拟合；官方验证集只用于早停与缺失评估；官方测试集在全部检查点确定后做一次干净评估。

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+C6_no_reconstruction,728,0.5837912087912088,0.48325805552048157,206,184,338,0.6359223300970874,0.09239130434782608,0.8195266272189349,0.709170937538147,0.9543444540035635,0.5635251402854919,0.5161844703592794,0.8740492463111877,0.06073655040709527,0.8928571428571429,2.3883748054504395,2.825748920440674,1.141447589690795,C6 trained without the auxiliary hidden-feature reconstruction loss,0.5810816287994385,0.5810815691947937,4.87382330049968e-08,0.20374375581741333,0.6135826706886292,2.8257386684417725,0.3,0.05,0.05,0.05,nan,nan
+C6_pointmask,728,0.5810439560439561,0.5025832785659426,206,184,338,0.5436893203883495,0.15760869565217392,0.834319526627219,0.679211437702179,0.9175777170595291,0.5958787798881531,0.5092818643196679,0.8619159460067749,0.05020872241520621,0.8901098901098901,2.4665889739990234,2.818068265914917,1.1026513503354962,C6 trained with independent point masking instead of contiguous spans,0.6072730422019958,0.6072730422019958,3.120251079735681e-08,0.24521614611148834,0.633151650428772,2.8180501461029053,0.3,0.05,0.05,0.05,nan,nan
+C7_distill,728,0.592032967032967,0.4870960207460408,206,184,338,0.6650485436893204,0.07608695652173914,0.8284023668639053,0.7024686336517334,0.9442218762916826,0.5752816796302795,0.5166531638152239,0.8771014213562012,0.03309895266052133,0.8818681318681318,2.485671043395996,2.828686475753784,1.2328404661886574,C6 plus entropy/retention-weighted teacher distillation only,0.5969328880310059,0.5969326496124268,2.2941341626392386e-07,0.1737147569656372,0.6470145583152771,2.828679084777832,0.5,0.05,0.05,0.05,nan,nan
+C7_group,728,0.6002747252747253,0.4509009833805456,206,184,338,0.7038834951456311,0.0,0.863905325443787,0.7323286533355713,0.9355743977553851,0.6008110046386719,0.5087103578214832,0.8661918044090271,0.06044913705561188,0.9024725274725275,2.5981743335723877,2.8037712574005127,1.0417083718358262,C6 plus smooth worst-group risk only,0.6530460119247437,0.6530460119247437,5.441940942318979e-08,0.14995495975017548,0.6626315116882324,2.8037784099578857,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.1,0.1

final/experiments/q2/unaligned_math_all_b128/group_bootstrap_ci.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+metric,estimate,ci_2_5,ci_97_5,replicates,unit
+accuracy,0.6717585232291114,0.6337437582438289,0.7083999622974622,300,source video group
+macro_f1,0.5478055347952107,0.5108259770753341,0.5872370160716736,300,source video group
+mae,0.7108274400234222,0.6579044133424758,0.7620256423950195,300,source video group
+rmse,0.9714674680679505,0.8731931045635853,1.057953415758872,300,source video group
+pearson,0.6378498673439026,0.5640437543392182,0.7087083235383034,300,source video group
+interval_90_coverage,0.8956505821036529,0.8708135115106022,0.9182254293066758,300,source video group
+interval_90_mean_width,2.486721992492676,2.4194449901580812,2.5640856266021728,300,source video group

final/experiments/q2/unaligned_math_all_b128/group_risk_tuning.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+model,candidate,lambda_group,group_temperature,selected_reliability,inner_selection_nll,selected,selection_split
+C7_group,C7_group_lambda0.05_tau0.10,0.05,0.1,"(0.3, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05)",2.9074912071228027,False,reliability_validation
+C7_group,C7_group_lambda0.10_tau0.05,0.1,0.05,"(0.5, 0.1, 0.0, 0.0)",2.937703788280487,False,reliability_validation
+C7_group,C7_group_lambda0.10_tau0.10,0.1,0.1,"(0.5, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0)",2.887659251689911,True,reliability_validation
+C7_group,C7_group_lambda0.10_tau0.20,0.1,0.2,"(0.3, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05)",2.903527617454529,False,reliability_validation
+C7_group,C7_group_lambda0.20_tau0.10,0.2,0.1,"(0.3, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05)",2.934680759906769,False,reliability_validation

final/experiments/q2/unaligned_math_all_b128/reliability_hparam_tuning.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+model,rho_imp,lambda_u,lambda_gap,lambda_span,inner_selection_nll,scenario_selection_nll,selected,selection_split,note,group_lambda,group_temperature,risk_candidate_selected,candidate
+teacher,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.8551357984542847,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.8325021266937256, ""0.3/single"": 2.82944655418396, ""0.3/sync"": 2.859112024307251, ""0.5/async"": 2.899482488632202}",False,reliability_validation,,,,,
+teacher,0.5,0.05,0.05,0.05,2.854786992073059,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.832460403442383, ""0.3/single"": 2.829251289367676, ""0.3/sync"": 2.8586926460266113, ""0.5/async"": 2.8987436294555664}",False,reliability_validation,,,,,
+teacher,0.5,0.1,0.0,0.0,2.8547691702842712,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.83245849609375, ""0.3/single"": 2.8292293548583984, ""0.3/sync"": 2.858625650405884, ""0.5/async"": 2.8987631797790527}",False,reliability_validation,,,,,
+teacher,0.3,0.05,0.05,0.05,2.8533658385276794,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.8321738243103027, ""0.3/single"": 2.8287193775177, ""0.3/sync"": 2.8565878868103027, ""0.5/async"": 2.895982265472412}",True,reliability_validation,,,,,
+teacher,0.7,0.05,0.05,0.05,2.8578426241874695,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.8327653408050537, ""0.3/single"": 2.8310093879699707, ""0.3/sync"": 2.862823486328125, ""0.5/async"": 2.9047722816467285}",False,reliability_validation,,,,,
+C1,0.5,0.05,0.05,0.05,nan,,True,,not used by this ablation,,,,
+C2,0.5,0.05,0.05,0.05,nan,,True,,not used by this ablation,,,,
+C3,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.868969738483429,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.8552894592285156, ""0.3/single"": 2.855238199234009, ""0.3/sync"": 2.898164987564087, ""0.5/async"": 2.8671863079071045}",True,reliability_validation,,,,,
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+C3,0.5,0.1,0.0,0.0,2.8690126538276672,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.85528302192688, ""0.3/single"": 2.855442762374878, ""0.3/sync"": 2.8978819847106934, ""0.5/async"": 2.8674428462982178}",False,reliability_validation,,,,,
+C3,0.3,0.05,0.05,0.05,2.870371162891388,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.855177640914917, ""0.3/single"": 2.8578999042510986, ""0.3/sync"": 2.896186351776123, ""0.5/async"": 2.872220754623413}",False,reliability_validation,,,,,
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+C5,0.5,0.1,0.0,0.0,2.858084976673126,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.8378803730010986, ""0.3/single"": 2.8407742977142334, ""0.3/sync"": 2.8655664920806885, ""0.5/async"": 2.8881187438964844}",False,reliability_validation,,,,,
+C5,0.3,0.05,0.05,0.05,2.857841432094574,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.8378095626831055, ""0.3/single"": 2.839801549911499, ""0.3/sync"": 2.8676390647888184, ""0.5/async"": 2.886115550994873}",True,reliability_validation,,,,,
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+C6_no_reconstruction,0.3,0.05,0.05,0.05,2.811177134513855,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.79757022857666, ""0.3/single"": 2.7916157245635986, ""0.3/sync"": 2.816753625869751, ""0.5/async"": 2.83876895904541}",True,reliability_validation,,,,,
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+C6_pointmask,0.3,0.05,0.05,0.05,2.8119084239006042,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.7913870811462402, ""0.3/single"": 2.790656089782715, ""0.3/sync"": 2.814664602279663, ""0.5/async"": 2.850925922393799}",True,reliability_validation,,,,,
+C6_pointmask,0.7,0.05,0.05,0.05,2.821407377719879,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.791775703430176, ""0.3/single"": 2.791663885116577, ""0.3/sync"": 2.8317697048187256, ""0.5/async"": 2.870420217514038}",False,reliability_validation,,,,,
+C7_distill,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.8871994614601135,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.871961832046509, ""0.3/single"": 2.8787894248962402, ""0.3/sync"": 2.902831792831421, ""0.5/async"": 2.895214796066284}",False,reliability_validation,,,,,
+C7_distill,0.5,0.05,0.05,0.05,2.887099504470825,"{""0.0/natural"": 2.8719308376312256, ""0.3/single"": 2.8785901069641113, ""0.3/sync"": 2.902597427368164, ""0.5/async"": 2.8952796459198}",True,reliability_validation,,,,,
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final/experiments/q2/unaligned_math_all_b128/run_manifest.json

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+  "completed_utc": "2026-09-25T12:10:16Z"
+}

final/experiments/q2/unaligned_math_all_b128/test_metrics.json

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+  "selection_nll": 2.8449835777282715,
+  "interval_90_coverage": 0.8954607977991746,
+  "interval_90_mean_width": 2.48697829246521,
+  "predictive_variance_mean_uncalibrated": 0.6001424193382263,
+  "within_trajectory_variance_mean": 0.6001414060592651,
+  "between_trajectory_variance_mean": 1.021712705551181e-06,
+  "predictive_mean_mean_calibrated": 0.18709982931613922,
+  "predictive_variance_mean_calibrated": 0.6344733238220215,
+  "selected_model": "C6",
+  "temperature": 1.122980387832455
+}

final/experiments/q2/unaligned_math_all_b128/training_history.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,201 @@
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final/experiments/q2/unaligned_math_all_b128/validation_group_bootstrap_deltas.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
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+C5,C0,interval_90_mean_width,-0.7522284984588623,-0.7501976490020752,-0.851237690448761,-0.651238238811493,300,paired source-video group resample
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+C6_no_distance,C0,accuracy,0.016483516483516425,0.015602962450278701,-0.025158176948386863,0.05368575542755869,300,paired source-video group resample
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+C6_no_distance,C0,rmse,-0.017103453547432368,-0.01823479256332139,-0.06720366401839234,0.03965089682585672,300,paired source-video group resample
+C6_no_distance,C0,pearson,0.08881640434265137,0.08928048610687256,0.049032670259475705,0.12815435305237768,300,paired source-video group resample
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+C6_no_distance,C0,interval_90_mean_width,-1.155916690826416,-1.1544511318206787,-1.2067680954933167,-1.0983048617839812,300,paired source-video group resample
+C6_no_reconstruction,C0,accuracy,-0.006868131868131844,-0.008153393092879657,-0.04159180129850518,0.030601993085214534,300,paired source-video group resample
+C6_no_reconstruction,C0,macro_f1,-0.07406662996020902,-0.07427164155320246,-0.11354473287065868,-0.028505535727230268,300,paired source-video group resample
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+C6_no_reconstruction,C0,rmse,0.004977020946573263,0.0027477694204465775,-0.05508550586289301,0.07941780287834657,300,paired source-video group resample
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+C6_no_reconstruction,C0,interval_90_coverage,-0.04258241758241754,-0.04290758131319522,-0.06940336171756782,-0.018095951160513678,300,paired source-video group resample
+C6_no_reconstruction,C0,interval_90_mean_width,-1.131732702255249,-1.1248958110809326,-1.2080435454845428,-1.0486360669136048,300,paired source-video group resample
+C6_pointmask,C0,accuracy,-0.009615384615384581,-0.009738001914636085,-0.04920340824308543,0.022331564635391116,300,paired source-video group resample
+C6_pointmask,C0,macro_f1,-0.054741406914747937,-0.05509936281932051,-0.09933300769039154,-0.014947960975273141,300,paired source-video group resample
+C6_pointmask,C0,mae,-0.04757577180862427,-0.047405123710632324,-0.08711361587047577,-0.010291239619255097,300,paired source-video group resample
+C6_pointmask,C0,rmse,-0.031789715997461165,-0.03308342959875521,-0.08183316816372967,0.02130973142654214,300,paired source-video group resample
+C6_pointmask,C0,pearson,0.07724165916442871,0.07814452052116394,0.030774897336959837,0.12344256937503814,300,paired source-video group resample
+C6_pointmask,C0,interval_90_coverage,-0.04532967032967039,-0.046236097755335825,-0.06903910849453329,-0.02037191114069394,300,paired source-video group resample
+C6_pointmask,C0,interval_90_mean_width,-1.053518533706665,-1.050612449645996,-1.1356862008571624,-0.9624875009059907,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_distill,C0,accuracy,0.0013736263736263687,0.0,-0.03564026436677138,0.03808366113053612,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_distill,C0,macro_f1,-0.07022866473464978,-0.07150025845602764,-0.11333475377843333,-0.02820262605190197,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_distill,C0,mae,-0.024318575859069824,-0.023236483335494995,-0.06809726357460022,0.022609198093414166,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_distill,C0,rmse,-0.005145556765307591,-0.003754520280238871,-0.06475408824403364,0.06043374588794306,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_distill,C0,pearson,0.056644558906555176,0.05477696657180786,0.0036024510860443114,0.10223198831081384,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_distill,C0,interval_90_coverage,-0.0535714285714286,-0.05340785546264998,-0.08114066852367696,-0.029819319822607264,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_distill,C0,interval_90_mean_width,-1.0344364643096924,-1.0316048860549927,-1.1263263642787933,-0.9360203683376312,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_group,C0,accuracy,0.009615384615384581,0.00991596668164968,-0.026735576237341265,0.04448888522064489,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_group,C0,macro_f1,-0.10642370210014501,-0.1059487945832571,-0.14284757254188665,-0.06908091423711933,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_group,C0,mae,0.005541443824768066,0.005858421325683594,-0.03842498958110809,0.04856431335210795,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_group,C0,rmse,-0.013793035301605139,-0.013648813546030314,-0.06215944631884653,0.033087321259013286,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_group,C0,pearson,0.08217388391494751,0.08152049779891968,0.04730007201433182,0.1242825150489807,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_group,C0,interval_90_coverage,-0.03296703296703296,-0.03199443671766339,-0.05872082981670811,-0.011221050556814867,300,paired source-video group resample
+C7_group,C0,interval_90_mean_width,-0.9219331741333008,-0.918962836265564,-0.9758361577987671,-0.8550595462322236,300,paired source-video group resample

final/experiments/q2/unaligned_math_all_b128/validation_metrics.json

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+{
+  "n": 728,
+  "accuracy": 0.6085164835164835,
+  "macro_f1": 0.518781225964892,
+  "negative_support": 206,
+  "neutral_support": 184,
+  "positive_support": 338,
+  "negative_recall": 0.6796116504854369,
+  "middle_recall": 0.125,
+  "positive_recall": 0.8284023668639053,
+  "regression_mae": 0.6846789717674255,
+  "regression_rmse": 0.9208215740080159,
+  "pearson": 0.6101368069648743,
+  "brier": 0.4977383080922297,
+  "classification_nll": 0.8427478075027466,
+  "ece_15": 0.03950894476620705,
+  "selection_nll": 2.783693552017212,
+  "interval_90_coverage": 0.8873626373626373,
+  "interval_90_mean_width": 2.3910491466522217,
+  "predictive_variance_mean_uncalibrated": 0.5537729859352112,
+  "within_trajectory_variance_mean": 0.5537727475166321,
+  "between_trajectory_variance_mean": 2.9140662149984564e-07,
+  "predictive_mean_mean_calibrated": 0.2094990462064743,
+  "predictive_variance_mean_calibrated": 0.5816943049430847,
+  "selected_model": "C6",
+  "temperature": 1.122980387832455
+}